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Technology Stocks : Stock Swap
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To: Jake's mom who wrote (9511)11/9/1997 3:14:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin  Read Replies (3) of 17305
 
The presumption one is making, is that there is a "rest of the bull run" to get in on.

This has nothing to do with puts or options in any form. The concept I espouse, is that there is no longer a bull run.

In 1957 the decline lasted 3 months and 6 days...in 1857 3 months and 10 days....in 1977 3 months and 14 days...the mean price decline in these "7th year" selloffs was 36%.

Of course, all of this is just trivia for now, but my stance is that there is no further "bull run" for the time being.

This has been a somewhat orderly decline....bottoms don't show themselves in orderly markets. Money managers have said that stocks have moved from weak to strong hands....what else would they say? Would they tell you we're dumping on the rallies....if they did say that, there would not be a rally to dump into.

Garzarelli caved in on her proposed mutual fund....should we believe that it was because she was too busy to promote it, like the media would have us believe? All these years in the business and suddenly Garzarelli does not realize she has to do a road show? Unlikely.

If there is another selloff...If...my posture is the people who bought the last one will cash in the chips and take a hike. Two selloffs in a row will be all that is necessary.

BTW, Jake may have a method of telling you what to short....
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