Some thoughts on another rainy Sunday . . .
First, Steve, thanks for the AOL postings. I know I had asked for skeptical or hostile postings from that thread, and you certainly have delivered.
What is striking about these messages is their frustration with stock price action and their lack of focus on underlying market developments. Oh -- and personal attacks. It's true that stock price and market development are related, but only over the long term, and the stock if anything will lag the underlying developments.
That's not to say that this thread is completely clean, either, but obviously we make a major effort to investigate what's going on out there.
I'm not convinced by the AOL doubters, since they fail to raise any true red flags. For instance, I would become concerned if IDX lost a patent fight; if IDX lost alliances; if government or corporate clients turned away from fingerscanning in favor of other biometric measurements; if IDX lost market share; if the general biometrics market started slowing down; if Randy Fowler started making bad strategic decisions; if the Lerach suit proves market manipulation.
I'm not concerned that IDX has been conservative in their press releases, or that Lerach has managed to sue IDX (quoting news stories in his complaint, not the most impressive legal research in the world), or that there's a real high PE on increasing revenues, or that once in a while a competitor snags a contract, or that the shorts have so far been successful in reducing option values to zero (I don't do options), or that SI is filled with raving optimists who try to support most of their opinions with relevant information, or that major corporations are expressing an interest in the biometric field (I would hope they would; one company can't do it alone), or that the BIG ONES always seem just over the horizon (By the way, has any one noticed there are more BIG ONES hanging out there than ever?), or -- most important to our frustrated colleagues, and perhaps Brad's Cabo plans -- that IDX willfully refuses to even get to $15.
Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see IDX going sideways for a number of months, or even a bit lower if the stock market drops. However, it's better to buy this kind of stock a little too early than a little too late. (I bought this year, so I can afford to be a bit more patient.) On the other hand, I expect big returns to begin a year or two from now, and then I'll want to see if biometrics simply blooms or just explodes. That answer has not come in yet. Then we'll see if IDX will ultimately be a $40 stock or (this one's for Brad, so please don't quote me) a $400 stock. |
