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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 36.15

-0.6%

Dec 24 12:59 PM EST

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To: Ibexx who wrote (39711)	11/9/1997 6:39:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) of 186894

Intel's comments on China One of the things few people here do is check Intel's assurances against reality. The company is very careful to qualify its remarks. So when you look at their assumptions and you find they say they make their comments based upon "continuous worldwide growth" in microprocessor units of 25% and they cite chip sales in China, it is prudent to check into the reality of those figures! For example: feer.com This article in the Far East Economic Review, a well respected economic journal says bluntly that China's growth rate is shrinking and electronic components for sale in China are suffering price deflation. Intel's remarks do not square with this reality, and with the expectations of the majority of Asian economic experts. Andy Grove would probably be the first to admit that Intel cannot forecast the true effects of a slowing of the Asian economies. They only know what has happened to date. Yet many people here naively assume that after Friday's conference everyone will be ready for a return to up and up and up. ================================ As to the PII's, they are coming down in price very rapidly in systems. This was not characteristic of the Pentium when introduced. That means they aren't going to make as much money. (1) They have competition and have lost control of pricing. This is obvious from the growth of the sub $1000 market. (See Phillipe Kahn) (2) They are cutting prices faster to maintain market share and thus putting pressure on their margins. (3) They have no control over their real enemy---a slowdown i nthe world economy and demand for computers. You can believe I will short the _____ out of the stock if it runs back up. As to Monday---Buy on the rumor, sell on the news.

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