Sue, to continue with my reply, it's hard for me to predict AMAT's price at the end of this cycle; it may take us to the next century to see that...But, to give you a glimpse of how I figure out things---here is a copy of my very first post in SI and the whole internet for that matter. I started making copies of my Posts last night (SI will archive the Posts after 1 year)...and these are what I found:---
"To: james bravick (2520 )
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. Saturday, Dec 21 1996 5:57PM EST
Reply #2521 of 10603
James, I 250 percently agree with you! Bought my first amat stock in the late seventies in the year the stock price rose about 250% ! The following year, it gained an additional 100% The reason: CHIPS, CHIPS, and more CHIPS! These CHIPS are like their food counterparts-- once eaten, they're gone. You have to keep buying them."
That's brave for an old man like me to say AMAT is going to gain 250% or reach 126 from 36. We did saw AMAT gained 200% last Aug with still over a month to spare at year-end...
"To: Alex Kwan (2840 )
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. Friday, Jan 24 1997 9:13PM EST
Reply #2843 of 10604
My Year-End Target for AMAT is 126, a 250% gain (click on my name and you can find my previous postings). AMAT has been outperforming INTC since 12-26-96, and as long as it does so, the bull market will continue thru the next century (with occasional pauses, naturally, along the way).
In times like this when the stock pauses or declines, great opportunities for additional profit arises. Having no New Money left for investment, I sell some higher priced options like say 10 Calls of Apr 35, then buy lower priced options say 20 Calls of Apr 45, the left-over money to be used later.. Thus I control more shares of Amat to work for me in the future advances of the stock.
Based on my observations using 1 and 5 minute charts, Amat supporters come in droves at these levels: 44 1/2, 46 1/2 and 48 1/2. The next levels should be 50 1/2, 52 1/2, and 54 1/2. The stock, of course, is capable of Leaping Upwards 6 to 10 in one day!
I urge Long-term Amat Lovers to support the stock at these lower levels now! Amat should try again to go over 50 next week!"
"To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. (2843 )
From: Ricardo Villa Friday, Jan 24 1997 9:32PM EST
Reply #2845 of 10604
Tito,
When you say you don't have any new money to invest in AMAT
does that mean you are at full margin? Just curious.
On another note, I must say that your expectations of AMAT
at $126 are way above even my wildest dreams. That would
exceed AMATs valuation on a historical basis on many
measures including price to sales, price to book, price to
cash flow, price to earnings and a host of other items.
It is very likely that in 3-5 years it will be at the
price you suggest.
My expectations are for this year to trade as high as $60-$65,
98 as high as $80-90, and 1999 to trade as high as $120-130.
I like to keep my expectations firmly on the ground to avoid
disappointment but if your predictions come true I will become
rich beyond my wildest dreams as I am heavily loaded on AMAT.
Ricardo Villa"
"To: Ricardo Villa (2845 )
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. Friday, Jan 24 1997 11:25PM EST
Reply #2848 of 10604
I no longer use margin, Ricardo since I developed this system: Last summer when Amat was at 23, I was down 77%. Sensing that Amat was already at its bottom, I sold all my shares ( at a loss of course) then bought Jan '98 30 Calls at 4 dollars each. I gave up 1 share in order to control 5 shares, thats the idea. When Amat passed 35, I regained all my losses; at 38, I was ahead 30%. When Amat was retreating to 35, I was selling the higher priced option and buying the lower priced Apr 35's and 40's in greater abundance. Thus, when Amat crossed 45, I got a 1-bagger; at 49, a 2-bagger almost! Now that Amat is showing weakness, I'm doing the same strategy: selling, the Apr 35's to gain the 50's and 55's. Of course, in the process, I set aside some money for future use. So , as you can see, I don't need to wait for 126 to make money, although I believe in that number.
In the later seventies, Amat did gained 250% in 1 year, then added 100% the next year. You might say it coudn't happen again because Amat is already a much bigger company. Amat back then is a small company; but so is the market. Now that Amat is huge, so is the market ( I myself did not believe INTC's market capitalization would rise from 50-billion to over 100-billion in less than a year). Anything can happen in SILICON VALLEY, Ricardo. This is my personal opinion: I rely more on investors expectations than on set of guides like PE's and the like. That's why I spend so much time in this thread. By reading between the lines, I have a feeling of how things are going on. It's like I am seeing things in the eye -view of a monkey-eating-eagle looking down and analysing things...ready for the kill!"
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