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Pastimes : The Philosophical Porch

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To: Rarebird who wrote (5897)9/3/2010 8:23:45 AM
From: westpacific  Read Replies (1) of 26251
 
Q: Let's talk about China for a minute. If the U.S. enters another financial crisis, do you believe China is self-sufficient enough to withstand the lack of demand for its products from the U.S. or will China's economy suffer?

Dohmen: I think there's a good chance the next crisis will start in China. Everyone right now is saying, "Look at the gains made by China's housing and financial markets over the last few years. You have to look at what is happening in the last 2-3 months, though, not just the year-to-year trend. An incredible $1 trillion in loans were issued to Chinese borrowers last year. Also earlier last year, China's regulatory officials tightened lending standards in an attempt at curbing speculation but it's just another case of governments believing they can solve problems in the financial markets when it has never been proven that they can. They've seen a tremendous decline in home sales. Home sales are up 8% for the year so far but what the media isn't telling you is that home sales were up an 60% percent or so before the real estate crisis hit. The Chinese economy is coming to a screeching halt.

safehaven.com

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Total agreement; China breakdown is next in this crisis; via Jim Chanos call...

You see the rumor just last week on the near 500B potential loss on Fannie related assets at Bank of China.

He has an interesting view on Gold as well; if it ever does decide to run; FED will order confiscation...ala 1933. It simply cannot let the dollar reserve standard be taken out by gold or allow anyone to be protected.

West
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