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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (273116)9/3/2010 9:09:36 AM
From: Les HRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
My recollection from the 90's was the CES Birth/Death adds about 150,000 jobs a month if real GDP grows by 2.5% (or it may be 3.0%). It should lag the reported GDP. If the GDP has been sharply revised down, they shouldn't be going back and revising previous employment numbers higher. The other part I recall is that the BLS uses it as a cookie jar by frequently overcounting the number of jobs it adds during the year and then making a one-off adjustment at the end of the year. Last year, 427,000 jobs mysteriously disappeared in January.

bls.gov
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