Currently long.....after a surge of buying volume 1-2 weeks ago, the index has reacted as anticipated, and now continues to rise on low volume.
I anticipate QQQQ will continue to rise, particularly if volume stays low (high volume during a rally means professional selling into apparent strength, and predicts a reversal.
Major resistance levels have now been successfully cleared, including the midline of the BBs (20sma), the 200sma, 200ema, 100sma, 100ema, 50sma, and 50ema.
The path appears clear for a test of resistance at the upper rail of the BBs ($46.40) and then chart resistance at $47.
I think the index will reverse to the downside somewhere between the $47 level and the May highs at $48.70. But exactly where and when reversal occurs will depend upon how quickly sizable selling volume materializes. The index will not reverse until such selling volume appears, so there is an outside chance that the index could drift considerably higher if volume remains anemic, as has been the case for quite a while now.
Personally, I will probably shift to increasingly short, beginning at $47. I will also be looking for excessively bullish sentiment in the financial press and the put/call, the more the better. This would be contrarian corroboration of the technical/volume picture, and would make the likelihood of reversal very high.
.....all IMHO of course
T |
