What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls
Saturday, September 11, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
President Obama declared in a press conference on Friday that his job is to stimulate the economy. The problem for he and many of his fellow Democrats appears to be that voters don't like how he's going about doing that.
Earlier in the week, for example, the president proposed a long-term federal jobs program with a $50 billion price tag, but 61% of voters say cutting government spending and deficits will do more to create jobs than Obama's new program.
Sixty-eight percent (68%) prefer a smaller government with fewer services and lower taxes to a more active one that offers more services and higher taxes. That's the second highest finding in Rasmussen Reports surveying on the question since November 2006.
The president even has to be careful what he calls his new spending plans. Republicans and other critics of the White House view it as a second stimulus plan, but no one on the president's team is saying that. Why? Because 55% of voters continue to oppose a second economic stimulus package, opposition that has held steady since spring of last year. However, 63% believe it is at least somewhat likely that Congress will try to pass another economic stimulus package before the year is over.
After all, voters remain strongly convinced that congressional Democrats will try to pass legislation in the closing weeks of the year if Republicans win control of the Congress in November, and they strongly oppose any such lame-duck legislation.
But then 62% believe that no matter how bad things are, Congress can always make them worse. This level of skepticism is shared by a majority of just about every partisan and demographic group, including 53% of Democrats whose party currently controls both houses of Congress.
Congress' chief accomplishment of the year is the passage of the national health care law, but most voters continue to favor repeal of that measure. A plurality thinks repeal would be good for the economy.
Opposition around the country to the health care bill is a factor in many congressional races. Ironically, incumbent Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin of South Dakota is a Democrat who has taken the lead in her race, but she's been running ads reminding voters that she's one member of the president's party who voted against the health care bill.
Believe it or not, even though general elections are less than two months away, the final batch of state primaries doesn't take place until next Tuesday. Voters will go to the polls in eight states, although in many cases the candidates are a foregone conclusion.
The last-minute involvement of Tea Party activists and prominent conservatives is adding drama to the Republican Senate Primary races in Delaware and New Hampshire. Check our latest surveys for Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island and Wisconsin.
After the choices are made, Rasmussen Reports will run surveys on all of these races next week.
A new book by Scott Rasmussen and Doug Schoen addresses the broader discontent roiling the political landscape this year. MAD AS HELL: How the Tea Party Movement Is Fundamentally Remaking Our Two-Party System , published by Harper-Collins, will be released September 14. It can be pre-ordered at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble, Borders, and other outlets.
Polling this past week has prompted some interesting changes in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings. West Virginia's special Senate race surprisingly has moved into the Toss-Up category, while strong showings by Republican candidates in Kentucky and North Carolina have shifted those states into the Solid GOP column.
Similarly, new polling from California has moved the state's gubernatorial race from Leans Republican to Toss-Up in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard. Republican Brian Sandoval earns his highest level of support yet against Democrat Rory Reid to shift the Nevada governor's race to Solid GOP.
One governor's race that remains strongly in the Republican column is Arizona's. Despite her halting debate performance a week-and-half ago, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer now earns 60% of the vote in her bid for reelection, her best showing in the race to date.
Republicans now post a 12-point lead on the Generic Congressional Ballot, only the second time the gap has ever been that wide. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Voters would vote for their district's Republican congressional candidate, while 36% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This suggests that Republicans will have a very good Election Day in November, but Democrats still have time to stem some of the bleeding, as Scott explains.
The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes don't offer much hope to incumbents, though, that things will improve dramatically between now and Election Day.
The president's had another rough week, too, in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Interestingly, even as the country experiences one of the most contentious election cycles in recent memory, the number of voters nationwide who believe politics in Washington will become more partisan over the next year is down to its lowest level since January.
In other surveys last week:
-- For the third week in a row, just 29% of voters say the country is heading in the right direction.
-- Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters believe the United States is safer today than it was before the attacks of September 11, 2001. That is the highest level of confidence in the nation's safety since last August, but 54% felt that way just after President Obama took office in January 2009.
-- Most Americans remain willing to help defend only five other countries in the world militarily. Not surprisingly they're among the countries that most agree are America's best allies.
-- With the combat mission in Iraq officially over, just 29% of Americans believe the United States should militarily help defend the Middle Eastern nation if it is attacked. No countries in the Middle East are among those that a majority of Americans are willing to help defend, but Egypt comes closest.
-- Although his whereabouts have been unknown for years, most Americans still think Osama bin Laden is alive, but they also don't believe that killing or capturing the al Qaeda leader will make the United States any safer.
-- Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer and her Republican challenger Carly Fiorina remain in a dead heat in California's race for the U.S. Senate.
-- Republican Mark Kirk and Democrat Alexi Giannoulias remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Illinois.
-- Democrat Richard Blumenthal passes the 50% mark of support again this month against Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut's race for the U.S. Senate.
-- In Missouri, Republican Congressman Roy Blunt now holds a 10-point lead over Democrat Robin Carnahan in the state's Senate contest.
-- Senator John McCain still has a double-digit lead over his Democratic challenger Rodney Glassman in his bid for reelection in Arizona.
-- Republican incumbent Mike Crapo continues to hold almost a four-to-one lead over Democrat Tom Sullivan in the race for Idaho's Senate seat.
-- Most New Jersey voters still approve of new Governor Chris Christie's job performance despite the continued finger-pointing over who's to blame for a mix-up that appears to have cost the state $400 million in federal education funds.
-- Republican Chris Dudley remains slightly ahead of Democrat John Kitzhaber in Oregon's gubernatorial race.
-- Republican Governor Dave Heineman still holds a better than two-to-one lead over Democratic challenger Mike Meister in his bid for reelection in Nebraska.
-- Flu season is right around the corner, and 51% of Americans plan on getting a flu shot this year.
-- Summer is almost over, and reading and playing games remain the season's most popular activities.
-- When it comes to celebrating Labor Day, 52% of Americans consider the holiday as the unofficial end of the summer. Just 15% rate it as one of the nation's most important holidays. |
