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Check out these 2 old posts. 1 from soundview and the 2nd from Telechoice.
We need to go back and re-read some of the OLD posts. There is so much information that is already been released that we tend to forget about simply due to the time constraint. Yes, lots of these "suppose to be announcements" are not made when originally expected but you will see that many end up happening. This concludes, that we know a lot of what is to come with WSTL and should re-visit these items.
It likes putting a puzzle together without the picture in front of us. We need to go back and re-post some of the old posts in order to help us complete the ADSL puzzle!!!
Pay particular attention to Soundview's quote on BT..."The BT news when it finally comes is old news at this point and while the initial volumes are small it is still good news for the principal ADSL equipment suppliers, Alcatel and Westell." How incredibly accurate was this, which was released on Aug. 26th!!!
Another key Quote was on Lucent..."* Westell's partnership with Lucent appears more solid than they have publicly acknowledged."
I can't wait for this to come public. Remember somebody privously posted that Lucent sent their CPA (Coopers) down to WSTL???
When re-reading this release I think there's still so much more to come on GTE, BC, BT, NBTel and Lucent COMS and many more!!!
POST 1:
To: Curlton Latts (5941 )
From: bill c. Wednesday, Aug 27 1997 6:22PM EST
Reply #5945 of 7551
To ALL:
Here is a report from SoundView on the 26th from Albert Kovalyov on the
AMTX thread.... Thanks for posting Albert!!!
11:46am EDT 26-Aug-97 SoundView Financial Group (Kevin Slocum
203-462-7219) WST
ADSL ready to move
ADSL Stocks Ready to Stage New Move Up
In recent weeks, Westell and Amati have rebounded sharply from the
correction lows they experienced in early July. Amati is now sitting
near its high for '97 and Westell is at the top end of the range we
earlier suggested it was apt to trade within for the summer months. We
think the news in the coming weeks will continue to carry the stocks
upward. We would be more aggressive with the stock of Westell in the
short-term, but both should do well in the months ahead and we reiterate
the buy ratings.
News to Keep the Group Going
On July 31, in the wake of Cisco's acquisition of xDSL technology from
Dagaz, we upgraded our long-term opinion of Amati Communications at
about $12.00. Since then the stock has surged ahead over 40%. Their
market trial success at BC Tel, acquisition rumors, talk of a technology
licensing agreement with Analog Devices and rising expectations that GTE
will launch its ADSL offering in the fourth quarter have all
contributed. On July 25, Westell reported results for their fiscal 1st
quarter ended June 30. They disclosed they had reached agreements with
three new customers who would
disclose their plans at some later point when the customers were ready
to do so. Since that time the company has announced a contract with GTE
Government Services to supply xDSL equipment to the Department of
Defense, deployment of its equipment in Turin, Italy by Telecom Italia
and that they and Bell Atlantic had begun supplying Carnegie Mellon
University ADSL service. The first two relationships were not among the
three unannounced contracts noted on the 1st
quarter conference call. We said heading into Westell's earnings report
that we did not expect any major customer news until after Labor Day.
Well, the holiday is upon us and investors are beginning to position for
the news that should start to emerge over the balance of the year.
Hints of what is ahead are starting to become pervasive. They are:
* On July 31, Bell Canada filed with the Canadian Radio-television and
Telecommunications Commission for tariff revisions reflecting the
introduction of ADSL service scheduled to commence on September 30.
* August 2, a report in the Sunday Telegraph, said that British
Telecommunications Plc. (BT), was on the verge of announcing the
partnership we have long discussed with Fujitsu Ltd. and Alcatel (You
will recall that we have said Fujitsu is partnered with Westell.), for
deployment of ADSL in large U.K. cities.
* Two weeks ago at an industry conference in Chicago; Pacific Bell,
BellSouth and GTE all gave positive accounts of the viability of ADSL
technology. GTE went further in its comments indicating fourth quarter
deployment in three of its major markets.
* Our own work leads us to believe that within the next few weeks Bell
Canada will announce its prime equipment supplier, which we expect to be
Westell. The BT news when it finally comes is old news at this point and
while the initial volumes are small it is still good news for the
principal ADSL equipment suppliers, Alcatel and Westell. Certainly if
their was any question in investor minds about GTE's opinion of Westell,
the Government Systems contract has reduced them and suggests they will
play the important role many have expected
when GTE finally announces its overall ADSL plans. The next likely stage
for an announcement of this importance is Fall Interop, in early
October. We expect Westell to be the prime ADSL equipment supplier but
Amati to also win a piece of the business. At this point if we had to
speculate on a split, it would be 80/20.
Other Findings
* We continue to hear that Alcatel is not meeting customer expectations
leaving potential for both Westell and Amati to meet short-term needs.
* NBTel (New Brunswick Telephone) which has been trialing Westell
equipment is close to announcing a formal supply agreement with an
undisclosed vendor. Their specific goal is to find a viable DSLAM for
immediate deployment. We do not think there is another vendor who can
meet their near-term requirement.
* The LEC side of Sprint is examining ADSL deployment but nothing is
imminent.
* Westell's partnership with Lucent appears more solid than they have
publicly acknowledged.
* Amati has been in on again, off again royalty agreement discussions
with both Analog Devices and Alcatel. The key to conclusion of these
agreements is the immediacy of commercial product shipments. Based upon
what we have said about Alcatel would cause us to be less optimistic
about anything happening there. Like Westell, customer relationships are
what is critical for Amati, not a small royalty from licensees of their
algorithms.
* Hearing that Texas Instruments is making good progress on its DSP for
ADSL.
* Conclusion
We remain buyers of both Westell and Amati, however given the recent run
in Amati shares, we would be more aggressive on Westell where we believe
announcement momentum could carry the stock to $30 by year end. Just as
a reminder, Westell will host an analyst meeting this Thursday, for sell
side analysts.
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