>>I think Windows Mobile 7 will be an also-ran that'll stay well under 10% market share, behind the iPhone, BlackBerry, Android and Symbian/Nokia.<<
I believe you're right about that. Windows Phone 7 may be pretty slick, but the other mobile platforms are already ahead of it, and not standing still.
Android will eventually come out on top in terms of unit share. And just as in the computer business, Apple will have a smaller share than Android, but will make more money on the units they do sell, both in tablets and phones.
People who believe that competition from Android will materially affect Apple's margins are simply wrong. Never happened with computers, never happened with iPods (where, in fact, margins are up). Not gonna happen with phones.
I can even tell you why.
It's because the people who will buy Android phones and tablets are not necessarily the same people who will buy Apple products. The Android buyer doesn't mind a few rough edges in the user experience, and considers additional features to always add value. The Apple buyer values the smoothness, simplicity, and ease of the user experience, and considers the aesthetics of the product to add value.
There will always by both types of people, as well as other types, and combinations. That's why different kinds of smartphones can and will thrive over the coming decade.
All of this is just my opinion of course, and I could be wrong. I don't happen to be wrong in this instance, but it has been known to happen.
- Allen |
