I'm not sure we will see the 30s again for ASND. Rather, we may skip to the 40s.
Here is why (I've said it before):
1. Insiders suddenly sold small portions of their unregistered holdings (Ejabat sold about 1%) towards the end of October. Nothing since. (I wouldn't be surprised if these same insiders actually bought some registered ASND on the open market). (By way of comparison, the same thing did not happen in October 1996, so it is not an annual event.)
2. If insiders really thought ASND were tanking they:
a. Would have sold much, much greater percentages in October.
b. Would have sold more in late October and in November, as the stock began to sell-off with all the networkers. They did neither.
3. I don't quite believe the supposed company statement that unregistered shares could not be sold before October. There were at least 2 insider sales (minor, but they were sales) in August and July. If these insider sales occurred, why didn't other sales occur when ASND was a much higher priced stock?
4. Once the 8-k was released in July, there was I believe no legal prohibition against the sale of unregistered stock. In fact, as noted in item 3 above, there were at least 2 such sales by ASND insiders.
5. I believe the sudden sales of unregistered ASND stock in late October indicates that material non-public information may have come into existence fairly immediately thereafter in the form of a letter of intent with ASND as acquiree. This is pure speculation. However, this kind of activity has happened before and is noted as such a signal by Edgar-Online. Where has it happened before? At ASND itself. About 3-4 weeks before ASND announced its acquisition of CSCC, both companies had insider sale patterns similar to what happened in late October.
6. ASND employee stock options were repriced effective close of business 10/17. Mgmt deemed this to be at or near the bottom (it could not have anticipated Hong Kong and the NW selloff.) Yet, it has been said, mgmt sold off its holdings at or about the same time because they perceived that ASND would tank further??? I don't buy it. They sold for the same reason they repriced: a takeover loomed. Hence, employee option pricing needed to be low enough so that, after the takover, they would have some value. Likewise, insiders sold for liquidity.
7. CPQ is seeking shareholder authorization to issue another 2Billion shares. It needs some of these for a 2-1 stock split to be effective 12/31. It needs the rest, some 1.6B, for the stated purpose of possibly acquiring other businesses (this is in an SEC filing called a form 14C). CPQ had insider sales in late October almost identical to those at ASND. CPQ could, therefore, be the acquiring company. The additional shares won't be authorized until 12/11.
a. CPQ has stated it is seeking a NW presence.
b. The CEO of CSCO noted as much.
8. COMS had insider selling activity at the end of October almost identical to that at ASND and CPQ.
9. We know the industry is consolidating. LU just bought Livingston. COMS bought USRX. ASND itself bought CSCC this year.
10. There are more clues, but I'm tired. At the very least, and as best as I can tell, there are far more clues pointing to a takeover than there are pointing to ASND as a $17 stock.
Gary Korn |
