the lunch was delicious.
btw, maurice, i note that finance.yahoo.com
gold is up almost 30% during past 12 months, and qcom is down just about 10% in the course of past 356 days.
and since 2005 january finance.yahoo.com , gold is up almost 200% and qcom has done effective nothing except down a smidgeon.
so, tell us, what was the point of speculating in qcom and not investing in gold?
it is more than good, and in truth wonderful, to have you as a counterparty in the market arena.
the 9 at the table represented a few billion in unleveraged financial wherewithal.
distributed newly panda gold 1 oz coins as usual for the lunch.
next table was a crowd of 12, and we met truly wonderful and dropdead gorgeous marketing girl with all her seniors from tesla motors. Hk has 100% duty on cars based on cubic capacity of engine. Tesla is cc-free and so duty free. 1000 charges for the battery, n each charge would last me one year. The gold coins impressed tesla girl and her seniors. we were offered appointments to test drive.
last night i had a drink with doc doom, shared laughs, and then had meal at financiers' club with one of the boyz. the club meal was fine, and the staff as well as patrons were ohwhoawee, as in i like. the subject discussed was eventual private placement for financing a movie about the crime of two centuries, but centered around the time of the genesis. the central character is a womanizing drunkard driven mad by 'THEM'.
the general take-away from the annual clsa conference google.com
- investors are bearish, and confused, which means chaos shall prove a gift, crisis will be the partner, volatility be the friend ... i am bullish
just in in-tray, per greed n fear
· Japan’s first intervention yesterday in the yen since March 2004 has given the current increasingly bullish sentiment more of an upward jolt as hopes rise of a more aggressive policy response in Tokyo. It is also a positive that the seemingly unsterilised intervention occurred the day after Naoto Kan’s re-election as DPJ president.
· Sentiment will now turn on whether Kan will mount a formal attack on the Bank of Japan’s independence in a bid to end deflation. There will also be conjecture on whether he will support an anti-deflation bill now in the Diet. Still in GREED & fear’s long standing view the answer to Japan’s long standing deflationary problem lies in addressing structural reform not monetary policy gymnastics.
· The new rules on Basel III have confirmed regulatory forbearance in the sense that implementation has been extended to 2018, which in GREED & fear’s view is too far out to be relevant for practical purposes. This means the new rules can always be diluted again if stresses re-emerge.
· GREED & fear continues to believe that Western commercial banks will remain in deleveraging mode for now because they will be concentrating on the risk adjusted returns they can earn buying bonds rather than making loans. There is not yet any sign of a real pickup in demand for credit in the US. GREED & fear also continues to see a lack of recovery in the so-called shadow banking market.
· GREED & fear’s view remains that it is risky to bet on releveraging in the West until there is more concrete evidence that it is happening. That creates the likelihood of continuing anaemic growth in the US which is the preferred environment for Asia and emerging market domestic demand stocks, most particularly in those Asean markets where governments are not trying to hold down asset prices by various interventionist policies.
· There is growing evidence that Thailand could be enjoying its first proper investment cycle since the Asian Crisis. This new investment cycle is reflected in the pick up in credit demand seen this year, not only in consumer lending but also corporate lending. This is why the Thai stock market failed to sell off when blood was spilt in the street in 2Q10.
· Foreigners have not fully participated in this year’s equity rally in Thailand which means they will be more psychologically inclined to buy any pull backs. And pull backs are certainly possible on any material sign of a further slowdown in the West since Thailand remains an export geared economy. Still Thailand is not really so geared to Western consumers.
· High crop prices are boosting Thai rural incomes which are also benefiting from the policies of the Abhisit Government which are designed to buy support in the countryside from former Thaksin supporters. Examples of these policies are the so-called farmer income guarantee system and the loan shark refinancing scheme.
· The Thai stock market, like the other emerging Asean markets, does not have to contend with a government trying to hold down residential property prices via various administrative measures. Rather the Abhisit Government is in reality trying to encourage property price appreciation given the action in the Thai residential property market is not in high-end apartments.
· Thailand is well set up for a positive self feeding domestic demand dynamic providing the external environment does not collapse too dramatically and providing the present relative calm continues to prevail politically.
· On the political front, the strategy of the present government is clearly to hang on in power for longer in the hope that growing evidence of an economic recovery will make a general election next year more winnable. Still there can be no doubt that considerable resentment still lingers among red shirt supporters.
· GREED & fear will add another one percentage point to Thailand in the Asia Pacific ex-Japan asset allocation this week with the money taken from Hong Kong.
· GREED & fear continues to believe that Mongolia remains the most exciting story in Asia on a five year view in terms of GDP growth momentum and asset price momentum. It also has the advantage in an increasingly correlated world of still for now being not correlated. Mongolia remains the ultimate warrant on the China growth story.
· The catalyst for renewed outperformance by China will likely be a more clear cut easing signal. The fact that property prices have not yet really declined in the likes of Beijing or Shanghai is delaying that easing signal. That means for now the momentum remains with Asean.
· Healthy consolidation remains the name of the game in India. This week’s inflation data has eased inflationary concerns, while the RBI will probably go on hold in terms of interest rate policy after today’s 25bp repo rate hike.
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