Battleground Poll: Democrats tied in generic
Voters believe the GOP will take over Congress but are evenly divided over which party they will back.
By CHARLES MAHTESIAN & JIM VANDEHEI | 9/16/10 4:50 AM EDT
Voters, by a 9-point margin, believe Republicans will pick up both the House and the Senate, even though they are evenly divided over whom they intend to back in six weeks, according to a new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll.
In a generic matchup between the two parties, those surveyed were split 43-43 when asked if they would back a Republican or a Democrat on Election Day. This is good news for Democrats and at odds with many other public polls, which have shown Republicans holding a single-digit edge.
In the West — defined as Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington — Democrats hold a blowout 51-31 generic advantage. Those numbers, however, are tempered by findings that should send shudders down the spines of Democrats in the Mountain West: In that eight-state region, where the party has made significant recent inroads, the GOP held a 24-point lead.
Overall, the likely voters polled said they anticipated Republicans will have a big night, picking up the 39 seats necessary to win the House (45-36, with 19 percent uncertain) and the 10 needed to recapture the Senate (46-37-17).
One reason may be the disparate levels of voter enthusiasm. Ninety-five percent of those surveyed who usually vote Republican said they were extremely or very likely to vote in November. For usual Democratic voters, 87 percent said the same.
The poll also showed wide enthusiasm gaps between the youngest and oldest voters. Seventy-nine percent of voters ages 18 to 34 said they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 96 percent of those age 65 or older.
When broken down by race, the gap is equally noticeable — and politically consequential for the Democratic Party. Just 76 percent of African-Americans said they were extremely or very likely to vote, compared with 92 percent of whites.
The rest of the poll similarly offers reasons for hope and hand-wringing for both parties, including signs that the Democrats’ blame-Bush-first campaign on the economy is resonating but that the blame-Boehner-next campaign for everything else has a long way to go.
This is the first in a series of six bipartisan polls that will be conducted for POLITICO and The George Washington University as part of the nearly 20-year-old Battleground survey. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters nationally between Sept. 7 and Sept. 9, was conducted and analyzed by two widely respected pollsters, Democrat Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners and Republican Ed Goeas of The Tarrance Group. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent. (See: Analysis from Goeas, Lake)
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