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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing
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To: Biomaven who wrote (94144)9/17/2010 1:38:54 PM
From: Keith FeralRead Replies (1) of 118717
 
Payroll tax cut? The guy is dreaming. It goes along with the theories regarding repatriation of cash for US companies. They need the cash in those markets to support export growth.

The solution is the one we are dealing with. Let consumer credit contract as the housing market continues to grind out the losses from the housing bubble. Seasonally, I have no doubt that housing prices will pull back from the summer peaks again this fall. Hopefully, that will bring more buyers into the market looking to take advantage of low mortgage rates as prices take a breather from the big advance from the beginning of 2010.

The median sales price in January was $164K, which jumped to $182,000 in July. Same thing happens every single year, before they back off towards $170K by the end of December. August is usually the biggest negative adjustment for the year price wise, although they will probably trail off through the end of the year before they bottom in December or January.

As long as housing prices remain positive YOY in the next couple months, I don't see any big deal from the numbers as the housing market continues to stabilize. The double dip in housing sales has already been factored into the market last month when sales fell apart from 5.2 to 3.8 million sales annualized. As prices begin to normalize towards the baseline from the second half of last year, the pace of sales should accelerate into the 4th quarter.
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