"I think the Republicans peaked too early, as I have said before. It seems to me the polls against the Democrats have bottomed and are now trending slightly in their favor."
Always a possibility, you never know where the peak occurs until after it does. I not sure what you are looking at as to the polls, I think it is getting uglier for the dems. As I previously noted, if O'Donnell improves in Delaware, I believe it will be a massacre.
" If Obama uses the bully pulpit effectively, and the economy keeps chugging along, there is a good chance of keeping both the house and senate Democratic. "
As far as the bully pulpit goes, it ain't going to happen, he has been on the bully pulpit since he won the election and the Dems situation gets worse. They won't face the fact that the message is the problem, not the delivery.
"it's mostly a matter of perception right now. 90% of the people have jobs and those that don't are mostly Democratic voters, whose unemployment benefits keep getting extended by Congress,"
W3ell actually if you include the discouraged and use govt. statistics it is around 15% and using other estimates closer to 20%. The number of people affected is much higher. If a family has two earners and one of them is unemployed, two people are affected. Also many are working for far less than they previously made. I know of few people who do not have friends or family not affected.
"who will benefit heavily from the health care plan"
Don't think so. Even if the plan were a good thing it wont be implemented fully for a few years. Right now it is unpopular and a negative for Dems.
"Recession is officially over"
Supposedly it was over in April of last year. There are those who say the govt stats are phony. Shadow Stats says they are. But regardless, it doesn't matter. In fact, if you claim the Recession is over those who are not participating in the recovery are even more likely to blame Obama for their situation. They feel left out. Exactly what the lady who questioned Obama at the so called town hall meeting was saying.
I would dispute your notion that the stock market is doing well. Also as far the average person is concerned their 401 k
performance is more important and most are down.
" It may not take much to change perceptions for the better between now and Nov 2."
The kindest thing I can say is that is just wishful thinking.
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