I think you're making some good observations. Do you also think, though, that many or even most of these elections are being driven by the events and facts on the ground unique to a particular state.
For example, this surprised me today.
Reuters) - Republican Carl Paladino, backed by the conservative Tea Party movement, has pulled within 6 percentage points of Democrat Andrew Cuomo, the state's attorney general, in the New York governor race, a poll showed on Wednesday.
Cuomo had the support of 49 percent of likely voters, compared to 43 percent for Paladino, a blunt-speaking businessman who shocked establishment candidate Rick Lazio in the September 14 Republican primary, the Quinnipiac University poll found.
A Quinnipiac poll of registered voters released on September 1 had showed Cuomo, the son of popular former New York Governor Mario Cuomo, with a huge lead of 60 percent to 23 percent over Paladino. That poll was released two weeks before Paladino's primary victory.
Cuomo had been considered a strong favorite in the race in a heavily Democratic state.
"The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory. The answer is yes," Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said in a statement. "He's within shouting distance and -- you can count on it -- he will be shouting."
Eighteen percent of those questioned in the latest poll considered themselves part of the Tea Party movement. Of those, they supported Paladino by 77 percent to 18 percent for Cuomo.
The September 16-20 poll of 751 likely voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
Paladino jolted the governor's race as he promised to cut taxes and dismantle parts of the state bureaucracy that he called obsolete. Paladino has sharply attacked Cuomo, questioning whether he had the "cojones," Spanish for balls, to debate him and saying the Democrat was riding his father's coat-tails.
He has tapped into support from the Tea Party, the loosely organized conservative movement that advocates smaller government, lower taxes and less regulation of private business and has been harshly critical of Democratic President Barack Obama.
Tea Party-backed candidates won several high-profile primary races around the country against more moderate establishment Republicans.
2010 Thomson Reuters Editorial Editi |
