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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 368.29

+0.6%

Nov 7 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (66362)	9/23/2010 6:55:09 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) of 217571

The Rare Earth thing smells like theater to me. Both Japan and China are on holiday - how convenient... Various hearings coming up, this is perfect fodder for any rare earth mine owner / investor etc. to ramp up. The story started with an unidentified Japan RE buyer telling an Australian publication (Industrial Minerals ) this yarn. Both buyers and sellers of rare earths in Japan and China say there is no interruption, and some say they have heard only rumors. If China wanted to use RE as leverage, it is close to a one time use event, because it is relatively cheap for a moderate size nation to invest and develop an RE mine and processes, and stock pile a few years worth of the RE they need. Toyota is said to have about a years supply for the Prius. China was reducing the exports of RE to encourage buyers to buy manufactured devices containing RE from China. This lets China capture more of the value and creates JOBS. With some of the best manufacturing cost structures in the world, this made sense. This rumor tends to move China into the position of being an "unreliable supplier" which means parts containing REs will not be sourced from China, but made somewhere else, even if a small subsidy is needed. These parts will use RE from non-China sources. ************ My best guess is that some part with a strong interest in RE started this rumor. I'll give that about 60% probability. My second guess is that some lower level PRC official did this without explicit clearance from above. Maybe a 25 % chance for this version. So all the other options are maybe 15%. Some very short term thinking by someone in China, after a lot of effort and money to be a reliable suppler ?

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