Prediction : While in the next 3-4 years we may see only a few REE mines outside of China, probably Mountain Pass and the South African Monazite mines.
However, there will be much more exploration for REEs, and in 3 years we will see the announcements of at least 6 major new orebodies, meaning at least 5 millions tons with a cut off grade of >1.5%.
Why can I be so sure about this prediction ? ;-)
Because very few geologists have seriously looked for rare earths in the past 35 years...
Look at the first graph in this USGS paper - see the decline in "Other" production once China ramps and prices slide ?
Low prices discourage exploration.
Look also at the long period of dominance by Mountain Pass, when it was a low cost volume producer - that would also discourage exploration.
Now geologists have more tools satellites, geochemical sampling, more and better magnetic surveys, better helicopters , etc. and more basic geological knowledge, including the records of explorers who noted REEs while looking to something else, like nickel, gold, uranium, moly, etc. |
