regarding trends -- lower highs, or higher highs.
yes, you determine a trend by comparing relative highs and lows, but you are seriously mistaken regarding the last "higher high"...which was in early October on the SP500.
quote.yahoo.com^SPX&d=3m
Therefore, we are only NOW at a time where we can do any comparison of relative highs. If the last 2 day pullback continues down past 900, then we have something to worry about.
If, on the other hand it continues up past 950, then we have an uptrend relative to the Oct 27 low, and then must look for a move past 983.12 to confirm the uptrend.
In any regard, the SP500 can move down to about 850 and STILL be considered in an uptrend, if one doesn't hold his nose up too close to the picture.
quote.yahoo.com^SPX&d=2y
Although I am also cautious on the market right now, the fact that everyone else is too is a good sign for the market's overall health.
I recall that most of the "Bear market" gurus, including Patrick, had buried the bull market in March, and I was ridiculed in April when the Dow reached 6500 -- and my call was for Dow 8,000.
I'm not saying the market is NOT in a downtrend already, but that is not as yet a "fact"...merely speculation. But not speculation based on anything the charts can back up. The market has not yet told us which way the wind is blowing.
cLastChanceForGas |
