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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (278559)9/26/2010 2:39:33 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
We are in a repeat of the early to mid 90's cycle all over again only price movements and speculation were on steroids this time. Expecting quite low housing starts for at least 5+ more years as most MSA's that tend to expand the most will be slow growing at best for a long time.

I think its bad to generalize when it comes to housing. I see you're in the FLA market. From what I know of FLA, it never had a market where prices moved up quickly until this past decade. I am not clear what it will do going forward given that it now has the taste for the boom just as its population growth is slowing.

I believe the national trends that have depicted housing for the past ten years are over. I think housing trends will become more localized as different markets recover at different rates, depending on growth prospects for that market.

In addition, I have to believe there is pent up demand. The rate of household formation has declined markedly for the past two years as people have doubled up. I believe pent up demand is building. Eventually, when people are more confident, they will come back into the market, looking for housing to buy.

Last time it was worse in commercial. I still drive by many office parks where every building was built around 1984-87 but took till the end of the 1990's for all the space to get absorbed.

Again, I think different markets have experienced differing conditions. Some markets saw commerical building growth all through the 90s and the 00s. Yet, markets in CA and maybe FLA are still digesting the building boom that occurred in the late 1980s.

I think its a mistake to paint the entire country with one brush....esp. now.
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