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Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis
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To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (30394)9/26/2010 11:19:44 PM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) of 71475
 
I read the GS bit. Unless I am reading the thing incorrectly, which is definitively possible, they base their prediction on something called US-MAP which, when outliers are taking out, seems to have a 50% accuracy rate. Because non-farm employment and ISM figures, which are a part of US-MAP, are likely to be uninspiring, they believe the market will go down.

This US-MAP [Macro Data Assessment Platform] thing if I read correctly, is a coin flip in the first place, even if the input is known and it is retroactively tested [shoot, I can do better than that by tracking macro data and using my intuition].

But CR hedges his prediction since he states that markets should go up in anticipation of QE2 in November provided the news flow does not go South.

In other words CR and GS agree: if news doesn't suck, markets won't suck.

I think that's the takeaway.

I just spent 15 minutes re-learning that obvious and valuable lesson. vbg
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