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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (278915)9/27/2010 3:18:27 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
I believe clues for future price appreciation in the affordable parts of the country could be had by just following what happens in the next few years in expensive large west coast and NE markets as well as the parts of inland CA that were overbuilt and crashed beyond belief.

I am not sure about that. Out West, land is becoming increasingly dear. SFO and LAX are built up. Seattle and Portland have pretty restrictive growth policies in place while continuing to experience in migration. These 'artificial' restrictions will help to force prices up.

In the NE, only DC has strong employment growth but NYC and Boston continue to be desirable locations with little land availability. I think those three markets will see fairly strong price appreciation. South of VA....the markets are small and don't suffer from a lot of land restrictions so houing price appreciation will be slower.

I don't think either coasts are models for the Midwest or even the South. To me, housing markets in those regions become even more localized and very dependent on the rate of employment growth, land availability and in migration. And even then, nothing is a given. For an example TX had strong employment growth all through the 00s but little price appreciation in housing. Why? Because land availibilty is great and zoning requirements are minimal. That's why I say the days of looking at a national housing market are rapidly drawing to a close. Too many regional differences.
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