| There are studies with all sorts of different conclusions depending on what time frame you look at, what other factors you account for, how you account for them, and other parts of the study. Whatever multiplier you like, from negative to over one and a half, maybe even over 2, you can find support in the economic literature. There is no authoritative answer even for specific past events where we have as much information as we are ever likely to have, much less for the current situation, where any estimates of the multiplier are just guesses. The CBO makes the guess it likes and find supports for it (like it could find support for many other multiplier estimates), or it take the particular types of studies it likes and just grabs whatever multiplier they give. Then it plugs that in to its model, with a positive multiplier, in particular a multiplier above one, the model is then going to show a benefit every single time its run. Its not a measurement of the real economy. Its a simplistic model, that bears little relationship with the real economy, that produces a predetermined conclusion. |
