2010 AL Cy Young contenders (5)
Leader W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR* comments
---------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --------------------------------------
Felix Hernandez 13-12 6 249.2 70 232 2.27 1.06 .212 6.0 1-1 in last two starts; 2 ER in 16 IP
Not quite W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR comments
---------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --------------------------------------
David Price 19-6 2 207.2 79 187 2.73 1.20 .222 5.3 2-0 in last two starts; 3 ER in 14 IP
Jon Lester 19-8 2 204.0 78 220 2.96 1.16 .214 5.4 7 shutout innings in W at Yankees
Jered Weaver 13-12 0 217.1 53 229 3.02 1.08 .222 5.2 Last start: L vs White Sox; 3 ER in 6.2 IP
CC Sabathia 21-7 2 237.2 74 197 3.18 1.19 .239 5.5 1-1 in last two starts; 8 ER in 13.2 IP
Cliff Lee 12-9 7 205.1 18 177 3.29 1.02 .242 4.2 Last start: L at Oakland; 4 ER in 5 IP
Also-ran W-L CG IP BB K ERA WHIP BAA WAR comments
---------------- ----- -- ----- -- --- ---- ---- ---- --- --------------------------------------
Clay Buchholz 17-7 1 173.2 67 120 2.33 1.20 .226 5.3 Last start: W at White Sox; 1 ER in 8 IP
Trevor Cahill 17-8 1 189.2 61 112 3.08 1.11 .220 3.8 Last start: L vs Texas; 7 ER in 4 IP
Justin Verlander 18-8 4 217.1 69 209 3.31 1.16 .227 4.1 Last start: W vs Twins; 0 ER in 9 IP
*WAR stats are from www.baseball-reference.com.
Justin Verlander enters the periphery of the discussion, replacing C.J. Wilson.
Felix taking over the statistical lead in BAA from Trevor Cahill as well as maintaining his leadership in 3-4 other categories (I didn't start including WAR -- Wins Above Replacement player -- until last week) makes him once again the favorite for the AL Cy Young award, at least in my mind. The only other candidate with leadership in more than one statistical category is Cliff Lee, who is tied for the lead in complete games and has an otherworldly lead in fewest walks surrendered, which also translates into a slight lead over Felix in WHIP, but Cliff's numbers are otherwise just not Cy-worthy this year.
The only down note for Felix this past week is that he didn't win both games he started despite giving up just two runs in 16 innings pitched -- he actually lost one of those games 1-0, his historically pitiful Mariners offense scoring only three runs against the two he gave up in those two games -- both via solo HRs. Other "Not Quite" candidates, all of whom are having outstanding years by any other standard:
David Price has the fewest losses among the candidates, is tied for 2nd in Wins, and is tied for 5th in BAA. That's about it.
Jon Lester is tied for 2nd in Wins, is 3rd in Ks, 4th in ERA, and 2nd in BAA.
Jered Weaver has the same middling W-L record as Felix but plays for a better team, is 3rd in IP, 2nd in Ks, 5th in ERA, 3rd in WHIP, and is tied for 5th in BAA.
CC Sabathia has the most Wins in the AL, is 2nd in IP, and 5th in Ks. That's about it.
Cliff Lee leads the AL in walks surrendered and WHIP, and is tied for 1st in complete games pitched.
And Clay Buchholz just hasn't pitched enough innings.
All candidates with the exception of David Price and CC Sabathia seem likely to get one more start, though Felix is also questionable due to the Mariners wanting to protect his still-young arm from overwork. That seems to be a continuing debate in Seattle, at least in the media since his manager hasn't committed one way or the other. Ex: seattletimes.nwsource.com
Sabathia's candidacy, resting so heavily on his leadership in games won, seems likely to entirely evaporate if Jon Lester joins him as a 20-game winner, since Lester's other numbers (with the exception of IP) are all equal to or better than CC's.
Assuming Felix maintains his lead in strikeouts and ERA (which might require him to pitch one more time), it seems like a no-brainer to congratulate the man for a brilliant year and hand him the award. |
