The US 7Z was lower around October 23rd than it is now...but is now lower than it was last week. It is now around where it was in early October, shortly after the third. Personally, I think the bonds will be a good short in here somewhere. The last two significant highs were October 3 and October 28.
One other thing about the bond, it often seems to get 'detached' from the cash market....also, I believe if one were to go back 20 years or so, the reverse thinking was true. A reduction in bond yield would likely be deflationary anyway. Weakness in foreign markets is likely to be of help driving the bonds....England and Germany just raised rates.
The S&P I look at is the front month in the futures...currently SP 7Z.
Most people on SI look at the DJIA so I refer to the market in those terms...other places I refer to the spoos as a matter of choice. In all honesty, I prefer the spoos because they, not the DJIA nor the cash market, run the show. Although the SPX (and OEX, for that matter) did (so far) peak out in early October the spoos did not. Neither did the SOX which I think is a good leading indicator.
In any event, my reference to Dow Theory was only to find 'common ground' for the purpose of defining a bear trend. |
