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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs

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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (46285)	9/29/2010 8:06:54 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) of 71588

AND ALL THREE clearly showed that GNP, Employment, and government revenue would be LOWER by five years into their projected period They showed just about nothing. They predicted the result (that GDP, government revenue, employment etc would all be at a certain level either in absolute terms, or relative to what it might have been in other circumstances. They predicted a level of what it would be under other circumstances (either in an absolute sense, or relative to the results predicted with a particular set of policies and circumstances). To the extent they made absolute predictions (GDP will be X, unemployment will increase by at least Y, etc.) we can check to see if those predictions where accurate. If they where that doesn't tell us that the reasons the studies give for anticipating those results are actually valid. To the extent they made relative predictions (policy X will have worse results on this measures than policy Y), we don't have anything to check at all. We didn't (because we can't) run a controlled experiment with everything the same except those policy options.

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