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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (46298)9/29/2010 8:34:18 PM
From: TimF1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 
Re: ..."They showed just about nothing."

Are you crazy?

No. I'm sane, and more to the point correct.

ALL THREE were amazingly consistent in their projections

So what? Projections not reality.

And the issue under discussion is the cause of various economic results, not projected causes of possible results, or not the later observed actual changes. They theorized that certain policies and conditions would have certain results for certain reasons. That doesn't show us that those factors actually produced the results in question.

If they said unemployment will increase because of X. Then it increases. That doesn't in any way show that X was the result of the increase. Just as if I tell you the Republicans will pick up seats in congress because the moon is made of cheese, and then the Republicans actually pick up seats, it shows that the moon is made of cheese.

Even concrete actual economic predictions that do come true, don't show cause. Relative predictions (unemployment will be higher if we do this than if we do that), can't even be checked to see if they where true, because we can't run controlled experiments on the economy.

You can of course look at the situation, and come to the conclusion that the decisions in question where what produced the specific results you observed, but reports written up before hand don't show that idea to be true.
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