We are almost in the last inning and there is quite a range concerning 2010 global IC sales
August's 'actual' chip sales were below par
Peter Clarke
10/5/2010 5:29 AM EDT
LONDON — The "actual" global market for chips in August, as calculated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, was $25.36 billion, up 30.8 percent from the same month a year before and up 3.2 percent from July 2010 sales of $24.57 billion.
However, the sequential rise in chips sales was less than the average rise over the previous decade, which has, on average, shown a sequential rise of 7.5 percent.
The below-long-term-trend (LTT) August partly compensates for an above-LTT July in which chip sales fell by 9.5 percent. The previous decade's average has seen July sales fall sequentially by 17.7 percent.
These figures are based on actual chip sales rather than the three-month-moving average used by the Semiconductor Industry Association and the European Semiconductor Industry Association. These use an average to smooth out the data that would otherwise show troughs at the beginning of the quarters and peaks at the end of the quarter.
Analyst Mike Cowan's linear regression analysis model recognized the below-average August sales and he has reduced his estimates for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 global sales slightly from his previous month's forecast estimates.
Cowan now sees 2010 global chips sales coming in at $305.406 billion, down from $305.729 billion, and corresponding to a projected 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of 34.9 percent. Cowan now sees Q3 sales at $81.330, up sequentially by 8.7 percent, which is still better than the 10-year LTT of 8.1 percent. Cowan's estimate for Q4 global chip sales is now $79.429 billion, down sequentially by 2.3 percent. This would put Q4 below the decade-average of a 0.6 percent drop in sales.
SIA: August IC growth mixed, forecasts still in line
by James Montgomery, news editor
October 4, 2010 - Overall semiconductor sales are still in positive growth territory but the numbers slowed a bit in August for all but one region, according to the latest data from the Semiconductor Industry Association.
Inside the numbers:
* Global semiconductor sales rose 1.8% to $25.7B, an improvement from July's 1.2% increase and a sixth straight month of growth. Y/Y numbers continue to come down as the 12-month trailing period pulls further from the early 2009 trough.
In a statement, SIA president Brian Toohey cited PC and wireless-related products and infrastructure expansion in emerging markets, particularly in China and India. Asia-Pacific overall was up 1.4% vs. 0% in July, and Japan 4.1% vs. 3.1%. "Concerns about economic conditions in the US and Europe, coupled with seasonal patterns, bear close monitoring," he added. The US and Europe showed declines, from 3.6% to 2% and 0.8% to 0.1%, respectively.
* Top industry sector performances, as reported by Credit Suisse's John Pitzer: DRAM memory (100% Y/Y) and discretes (39%), with most others in the 20%-30% range, trailed by DSPs (16%) and microprocessors (18%). Hottest application areas are industrials (50%) and automotives; less sparkly are comm/wireless (7%) and consumer (16%). He credits higher seasonal ASPs (excluding memory) as helping drive growth, offsetting some below-seasonal unit shipments. "Ex-memory, IC unit shipments remain 2.8% below long-term trends," he notes.
* The moving three-month average shows a slight slowdown in the past few months. Chip sales were up 3.6% in the August-ended period, vs. 6.0% in the July-ending period. All regions still showed some slowing of growth, but are still in the black or on the line. The three-month moving average shows the Americas went from ~15% growth down to 10%, Asia-Pacific from 4.3% to 1.0%. Japan actually gained ground in August, improving from 5% to 8%+.
* For the year through August, chip sales tallied $194.6B, up 44.4% from the same period in 2009. The SIA "remains confident" in its 28.4% growth forecast for 2010 (to $290.5B), which it plans to update on Nov.4. Given August's numbers, the chip industry would need to add $95.6B over the next four months, averaging just shy of $24B...meaning flattish growth through year's end. (Or slight growth and seasonal slowness in the final holiday-saturated months).
Pitzer, though, suggests if the rest of the year follows historical trends, then revenues would pull in at about 26.6% growth, below current estimates from both the SIA (28.4%) and Wall Street analysts (28.7%). Those historical seasonality trends would peg September IC (ex-memory) sales at ~24% and 3Q sales at ~10%. "While bears continue to be concerned that semis have outgrown end demand on a q/q basis over the past several quarters, we would highlight that IC unit shipments (ex-memory) remain 2.8% below long-term shipment trends and historically we have not seen SOX correction until IC unit shipments exceed trend," he writes in a research note. |
