Betty,
Somehow OT, though to me RMBS is an early bird test of market flavour, you know, the kind of little birds mining workers would put into cages to test grizou (methane) dangers..., or more poetical, like peach trees french winemakers plant besides the grapes : they get first hit by diseases.
I believe a lot in a book (Harry S Dent, the Great boom of 1994,
amazon.com
)I read sometimes ago, that was relating WS indexes (I think it was the Dow30, or the S&P500) to number of people in the US aged 49. Why 49? because these are the times where one gets one's maximum income.
According to this, there is a systematical north push until 2015, wth some pauses, but not that much!!! There are three waves of baby-boomers maturity, and we just could be hit by the second one (Dent was predicting 1996-97 writing in 1992, not that bad).I don't want to go into too much detail, but the level itself he predicted is not that bad (markets corrections 1 and 2 are minor). The last wave (culminating into 2008)would push another 40% : that is from DJ level of 6500, going to 9100.
After 2010, natality forces (end of baby boomers push) carve for an horror story, if we believe the book : -50% at least on S&P500 <g>.
I'd love to see someone else comment on this.
Regards,
MiB |
