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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: John Vosilla who wrote (282511)10/11/2010 1:45:46 PM
From: tejekRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
So what are your thoughts? It's difficult to smell that in the air with how hesitant buyers are currently in San Diego, but a lot of that makes sense. And I also trust him, so tough to balance the investor side of me with the REALTOR side of me.'

sdcia.websitetoolbox.com

DISCLAIMER: I DON'T AGREE. PROBABLY 3-5 YEARS AWAY

I think again it depends on the market. Some markets are further along in their recovery than others. I think in the next 18 mos, markets as desparate as DC, TX, Seattle, NYC, Boston and MPLS will see more and more new construction. After them, CA will be next. I think NV, AZ and maybe FLA [definitely Miami] will continue to lag.

However, I do thinnk the article makes good sense. I posted last week an article that stated the national rental housing market was doing very well and new construction was increasing in some markets. Why? People are putting off buying and are renting instead. They have lost faith in the notion that housing is a sound investment. That will change when friends sell their house and make money on their transaction, or the landlord raises the rent or the tenant upstairs constantly plays music after 11 PM or they have a baby or two or three.

The first step has already happened....after the housing crash in 2007, people started doubling up. That experience has not been fun and people are now starting to move into their own rentals. Buying a house will be the next step in the recovery. 18 months? For some markets....others longer but it will happen for all eventually.
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