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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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From: Jimfutu28	10/12/2010 2:57:44 AM
	of 12410

The Softs Pit Review For the week of October 11th, 2010 Under the analysis of PitGuru Jurgens H. Bauer, we can have a short view of how the soft market will be going to work this week. Soft Markets, along with most commodity markets, rose big time on Friday and all were up for the week. Yes, positive fundamental news from USDA crop reports and strong technicals were responsible, but additionally there were rumors that the fed will intervene soon (maybe today) and that they'll buy bonds and notes to circulate all the cash that has been printed. Such a rumor only served to bolster already strong markets. Cotton prices are up again significantly. Friday they closed at a new highs and seem poised for further gains, (they are up sharply again this morning). While not settling up the limit Friday, there has been much limit activity in cotton futures which has caused synthetic pricing (via options) to in effect become the vehicle for price discovery. For a more detailed analysis of the fundamental picture visit agecon2.tamu.edu Sugar too closed at new high levels and has already begun the week on a strong note. Apparently there are some legitimate shortages in the physical market that have caused a great deal of short covering. I must admit that impressive as the recent run up has been I am not long. Is this a mistake? Missed opportunities can prove costly. Coffee, facing November option expiration initially flirted with the key support and the lows for the week, but turned north not only pushing above 180, but closing strong enough to encourage bulls to chase shorts. The coming week is apt to provide further evidence as to whether this market is back on its long term bullish track, or if the latest move was simply an expiration anomaly. How KCZ treats 186.20, or 178.35 ought to provide an answer. A close above there will bring 189.50-190.20 into play. A close over there invites $2.00. A move below 178.35 suggests more work to be done and a likely retesting of recent lows. Subscribers know my long term objective. Cocoa has been oversold and is vulnerable to rallies. I favor the long side, taking a contrarian view. Subscribers know I own long calls in December options and should be prepared to await further instructions. Perhaps rolling those forward makes sense. To keep up with futures markets, for more information at pitguru.com.

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