The Residential Real Estate Crash Index Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (282729)	10/12/2010 10:34:38 AM
From: pstuartb	Read Replies (1) of 306849

Stoneleigh's a century of challenges presentation. I listened to the audio version of her presentation. She did a good job of describing the peak oil argument. Then she argued that every time an economy experiences a serious bubble, the burst results in asset prices lower than pre-bubble levels. She contends our bubble in real estate and asset prices began in the early 80s, so she believes real estate prices will decline to levels seen in the 1970s. She then spent quite a while describing what a depression would look like in day-to-day life. She's an excellent speaker. I wish she had spent more time on causation, though. I don't need help imagining what a worst case scenario would look like. What I want to know is the likelihood of actually getting there. The bubble reversion argument, combined with peak oil, is pretty much all she had to offer in terms of why she believes a worst-case depression is likely. I felt like she skimped on cause-and-effect, while spending too much time on how scary things could get.

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