Arik/Judy; RE:"The trend of the market is down..."
...nice call. I felt that we had reached the apex of the after-panic bounce when GE made an Evening Star last Wednesday, followed by a Doji candlestick confirmation (see post 13651).
Re-Test of panic low-support for most stocks is now inevitable.
Ike is putting on a brave face for us here, but the fact remains: anyone holding bellwethers MSFT / INTC / AMAT / DELL / QNTM / CSCO since QTR-3 ending has been whacked. Although there are exceptions, the only thing in an UpTrend since then has been the bondz.
The long-term trend is UP.
The intermediate-term trend is DOWN.
The short-term trend has been DOWN since last Wednesday.
we are approaching critical support levels in most stocks. As you (Judy) said, about the "herd" - IMHO, the market is moving the stocks right now, rather than the other way around.
This is (probably) a great buying opportunity: the sell-off and test of support is co-incident with the FED monetary policy announcement.
I applaud Ike's courage, and encouragement during the last six weeks, but there comes a point when we have to look at the charts and say, "wow, the bellwethers are all in downtrends, and they're approaching critical supports".
With the exception of intra-day trading, this is not the best place to go short (approaching perceived support). IMHO, the most constructive thing the thread here can do next is: (1) stop debating "Bulls" and "Bears"; and, (2) start identifying where the perceived intermediate-trend supports are on the bellwethers and on the indexes.
AMAT appears to have perceived support around 30, for example.
INTCW appears to have perceived support at 49~51, FWIW.
-Steve |
