David,
You are assuming that everyone is perfectly rational with access to perfect information. The truth, though, is Wall St. is totally irrational at times. When this occurs, you have to do your own research and establish what a company is worth fundamentally. Because in the long run, a company's stock price reflects what it earns. There will be crashes. There will be competitors that drive the price up or down. But in the end, it's whether the company makes lots of money that tells you how much the stock is worth.
It sounds ridiculously simple, but in times like this, it is anything but obvious.
I originally bought at $31. I saw my profits disappear when the stock plunged back under $31, so I doubled at 30 5/8. It has gone down again, so I added 50% shares at 28 7/8. If it goes down more, I will add 33% more shares so I have 4x what I began with.
This stock is not worth $28. Period. I have done my research. I have seen the figures. I know what the risks are given dumping in the low-end and possibly middle-end desktop disk drive sector. This stock may not have hit bottom but I am not prescient. I do not know where the bottom is so eventually I will cover my Amazon short and even use that money to buy more Quantum.
When do I cry uncle? When someone tells me that DLT business is not a protected franchise. When someone tells me that the 4 gb and up disk drive market is going to be at cost for the next year. When someone tells me that nobody needs PCs anymore. So I think I'm safe for now.
Don't invest more than you can afford. Do invest in things you know are undervalued. And if you believe in your research, buy when there is blood in the streets. It's flowing now.
-Bill |
