Looking at APOL results: finance.yahoo.com Q4 is not that bad, the big bite is a goodwill writeoff.
However, if enrollment drops 40%+ and earnings drop accordingly, the company is not really undervalued. Considering earning run rate at about 300M per year the straightforward PE is about 17. If the company can grow at 20% from the drop to 300M, then it's a buy, if it only grows at about 15% from there, then it's not. :)
300M might be conservative, however, I don't account for any lawsuits, fixed overhead, additional regulations, loan losses, etc. So it might be also very optimistic...
Anyone has other thoughts?
Or should we declare this all to be asbestos and move on? ;) |
