I have been building PCs for the past 15 years. I also bought a few laptops/notebooks from SONY (Vaio), IBM/Lenovo (ThinkPad), Acer (Aspire). I always like the industrial design and fit-and-finish of AAPL, but never a fan. I always question why PC makers all act alike, boring, dorky, crappy. But I always use PCs for my work, my homework, my entertainment, etc. Since 2005, I bought iPods, iPhones, iPads, and latest a 27" iMac. I still not an AAPL fanboy, by a long shot. But it is undenaible that AAPL has done a few good things that the entire PC ecosystem has been missing. But I am still PC-centric in life and in profession. So, I should vent/rant here late at night on a Saturday.
I am talking about the form factors. Here is my hit list if I were an electronics toy company fighting with AAPL / SONY / HP / DELL / ACER / RIMM / NOK / MOT.
Form Factor ---------- Device Category
1" ------------------- Wrist Mobile Phone/MP3/MP4
3" ------------------- Handheld Mobile Phone/CAM/MP3/MP4/NET
5" ------------------- Handheld Untra-Mobile
7" ------------------- Mobile Pad Computer Phone
9" ------------------- Mobile Pad Computer Phone
11" ------------------ Netbook 8~12 hours
13" ------------------ Notebook 4~8 hours
15" ------------------ Laptop DTR 4~8 hours
mini-iTX ------------- Nettop / HTPC / NAS / Service Router
micro-ATX ------------ Everyday workhorse at home or at work
ATX ------------------ Professional
There is this brand new iPod Nano with 1" multi-touch color screen. If it can be put on a wrist with a phone and bluetooth in it, it would be my ideal 1" form factor device. This is a house of ARM.
I have a 3" 3G in iPhone 4. It has a fair hardware platform in A4 and a firmware platform in iOS. There are tons of competition in this category already, all over the place. This is a house of ARM Cortex and Eagle.
I want a 5" 3G for a business professional mobile device that has the best of all worlds, computing, communications, entertainment, documentation, presentation, access (as a MiFi). I am willing to pay a premium. But I need at least 8 hours of full operation. This is a house of ARM again.
There are not many interesting devices in 7", e.g., pads. APPL should slot in a 399 7" iPad. But I thing they are afraid of cannibalizing iPad 9". Here, ARM and Atom.
AAPL owns the 9" pads, period. USB, CAM, Hello? Here, ARM, Atom and Bobcat.
There are lots of un-wanted 11" netbooks. Overpriced under-achievers. That's where things will get VERY interesting next year with Bobcat and Super Atom. Here is an (opposite) example of today's netbook.
SONY VAIO X Series 11.1"
Atom Z550 2GHZ
2GB RAM
128 GB SSD
12 Hours of battery
$1499.99
Windows Experience Index of {2.9, 4.2, 4.4, 2.4, 6.4}. As we already know that this is gated by (1) CPU and (2) GPU. Here is what I am willing to pay if an 11" netbook can achieve (5.9, 5.9, 5.9, 5.9, 5.9). This is easily achievabble if CPU is in the ballpark of Mobile Athlon II, DDR3 1066, HD5450, SATA II HDD. If you put in an SSD and HD5550+ in this mix, then OMG I am willing to pay a premium. Do you think this is achievable by Zacate? Super Atom? CULV SB? I doubt ARM will provide enough juice in the near future.
It will be easier and more fun in 13". I think both INTC and AMD can put out a platform that scores {6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5, 6.5} that can last 8+ hours on battery. If there is a 128GB SSD in it, then I am willing to pay $1000 bucks for it. And SONY and to a lesser degree AAPL will feel some squeeze. Bobcat at low end. Sandy Bridge at high end. Middle is everyone's guess.
15" is boring.
It will be a very interesting time in mini-iTX next year. Finally, I can use this form factor for all my target devices.
And then there are usual suspects like ATX and micro-ATX replacements.
If I stare really hard at my list of form factors, I see high margin in INTC and increasing share gain in AMD. I don't see NVDA. But I see ARM everywhere from everybody. AAPL will be doing crazy. INTC will be doing fine. AMD will be gaining share. The report card is due October 2011. This is it. |
