Well, China is likely to build many nuclear plants ( > 100), and the US might build 5 to 10.
>>>>The Shale gas finding really puts a lot of nuclear in doubt, along with many green energy projects. This is true for the US...and maybe other places. <<<<
NG power has relatively low capital cost, and with plenty of gas from shale, low fuel costs. Also very low real pollution.
Greenhouse gases are lower than coal.
India is asking for US companies to come find and develop shale gas.
Here's a 2009 report from China -
www.petromin.ca/.../shale%20gas/Shale_Gas_in_China_Tuscaloosa_2009.pdf
With the above and some other info, I will go speculate...
In 2007, China got 3% of it's energy needs from Natural Gas, 20% from oil, and 70% from coal.
That 3% from NG was about 2.5 Tcf per year.
The US used 23 Tcf of NG that year.
The old, non shale estimate of China PROVEN NG RESERVES was
70 Tcf Reserves means it is close to production - there is well producing or near by, and proven means it is conservative enough estimate to get a bank loan.
Proven reserves = very conservative. Bankable.
Probable reserves = realistic, may a little conservatism.
Resources = geological estimates - commonly based on the technology available TODAY, not even 5 years from now - if based on a future technology, that should be in the text.
The low estimate of resources in the above paper is 21 T cubic meters, about 550 Tcf.
The high estimate was 45 T m3, 1200 Tcf.
The middle average estimate is about 30 T m3, about 810 Tcf.
A simple search for shale gas China will show lots of activity -
business-standard.com
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So there is potential for the rapid development of shale gas in China.
If production could get to 20 Tcf, NG consumption could double to 5 Tcf a year, and about 80% of the oil used for electric power could be displaced, reducing import cost.
That would leave about 40 years of resources at 20 Tcf / year
With production at 55 Tcf a year, 80% of the oil use could be cut and coal use cut 50%. That would leave about 20 years with the high estimate, and around 13 years with the average.
This would allow the shut down of the most dirty coal mines and power plants. It would buy time for nuclear and alternative wind and some solar to be built.
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It gets better. Much of China's conventional NG is in Western provinces, and needs pipelines to get to cities. The four basins mentioned are in South China, North China, Northeast and Northwest China. One is in Guangdong province....
(The Barnett Shale in Texas is about a 50+ mile radius around Fort Worth, and the area is covered in pipelines already. Shale gas formations - Geology that proves God loves us)
Both oil and coal based power plants can be converter to use NG , or in some case either fuel. This can save capital in for some power plants. As previously noted, natural gas power plant are cheap and can be put up quickly.
There are several LNG receiving terminals being built in China, some of them might be pushed back or stopped. Some might be disassembled and exported to Korea, Japan, or other places....
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It will take Many 200+ drill rigs to start ramping production up to these high levels. There will be money made importing oil field equipment, and later, some China firms will start making more of the specialized equipment.
>>> In a few years (4-7 ?) there might be enough NG to allow China to start exporting coal again. <<<
This will reduce the need for gas from Russia.
It may reduce the financial incentive for wind and solar.
>>> There also will be cheap NG for ammonia fertilizer <<<
Cheaper fertilizer means higher food production. It would be good to have some phosphate and potash resources to go with the ammonia.... |
