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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Grantcw who wrote (39761)10/21/2010 12:29:54 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris  Read Replies (1) of 78568
 
Cwillyg,

Differently from most people on this thread, I buy E&Ps based on earnings and not reserves. So, possibly, my valuation would be very different from what others think.

PBEGF is a bit hard to value anyway because of the complex structure. However, in short it's not a buy for me here. In fact, I would sell it if I did not like its macro picture. It's not cheap IMHO. But then most of E&Ps are not cheap IMHO, e.g. GTE, GPOR, GEOI are all close to my sell prices discarding the macro picture.

I think that APA, NXY, TLM are better values, but then all of them are not pure E&Ps and APA/TLM have 50/50% oil/gas split. PBEGF is more oily which is good. NXY maybe?

(Super majors E and TOT are still attractive, but this is getting far from PBEGF.)
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