Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 297.50

-2.6%

Nov 6 4:00 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49043)	10/22/2010 11:27:08 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) of 95383

re bookings and SOX peak: It looks like the cycle peak was the July 2010 bookings of 1.84B$. 1.84B$ is near where other cycle peaks have happened. The previous trough was in March 2009, at 0.25B$, so trough-to-peak took 16 months, also about the same as previous upturns lasted. The only part of the pattern different from previous cycles, is the very low bookings trough. The SOX peaked in April 2010, (3 months before bookings peaked) and has been in a downtrend since. I expect the SOX, for the next 6 months at least, to be flat-to-down. Since I don't think the upcoming trough is going to coincide with a recession, I don't think the SOX reaches 168 (the 2008 low), and I don't think bookings go down to 0.25B$ either. The SOX at or above its 200dma is a selling opportunity. At this point, I'm not looking for buying opportunities.

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