Paging Oscar Robertson: Will LeBron James Average a Triple-Double This Season?
bleacherreport.com
By
Faizan Qurashi
(Featured Columnist) on September 30, 2010 - Miami
 Lebron James led the league last year with 5 triple doubles
The last time a player averaged a triple-double was about five decades ago, when the big "O," Oscar Robertson was dominating the league as a sophomore.
He averaged an unreal 30.8 ppg, 11.4 apg, 12.5 rpg.
Those numbers are difficult enough for a player to attain in one game, but to average double-digit numbers in three statistical categories for an entire season seems unfeasible. Typically, when a player finishes a game with a triple-double, it's all over the news due to its rarity. I mean, it's not like they come around every other game.
Let me give you an idea of how rare triple-doubles really are. Last year, the highest amount of double-doubles in the league was 64, and the most amount of triple-doubles was 5.
Also, out a league of about 400+ players, just 25 players were able to record a triple-double, and 22 of those players only had one triple-double.
Of course, my point with all these numbers is that, getting a triple-double is no walk in the park. It's a combination of skill, hard work, minutes, and luck. Players need to be able to achieve if not all, then most, of these to get even remotely close to a triple-double.
The only player who seems to posses a combination of these on a daily basis is LeBron James.
Every NBA fan is well aware of the video-game like numbers James put up in Cleveland
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, as he averaged 29.7 ppg, 7.3 boards, and 8.6 assists per game.
James will look to be a nightly triple-double threat on the floor.
Many are betting that if any player was to average a triple-double during an entire season, it would be James. Now, more than ever.
While James came awfully close to averaging a triple-double in Cleveland, many would agree that it would seem unlikely that his numbers would increase enough to propel him to that Oscar Robertson-level.
Now with Heat, James can once again attempt to do the impossible.
NOTE: The numbers I will be using to calculate my stats are rough estimates of a player's statistics this upcoming season.
The situation with the Heat gives James the best chance to average a triple-double. He's got exceptional teammates in All-Stars Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh (much better than James' old tandem of Williams and Jamison).
Both these studs will allow James to rack up on the assists, and go beyond the 8.6 assists per game he averaged last year (sixth in the league). Also, the fact that James may run the point more than once on a daily basis should also be an indication for James to pad his assists column.
To figure out exactly how many assists James could end up with, let's assume the best case scenario and say the Heat will lead the league in assists. We'll use the assist numbers of the Utah Jazz who led the league last year with 26.67 apg.
Can James average a triple double with these two stat-power players?
If we subtract the amount of assists of Wade(5.5), Chalmers(4.0), Miller(2.5), Arroyo (2.8), House (0.7), Jones(0.3) from 26.67, we get 10.8 assists per game.
Scoring-wise, it's quite easy to predict that James' scoring numbers will take a hit due to having the one-time scoring champ and a career 25.4 points per game player Dwyane Wade, as well as the career 20.2 points per game scoring by Chris Bosh.
James' scoring will likely go down to the lower 20s. My guess is that's it's somewhere between 22-25 points per game.
Now, to figure out how many points James could have, let's assume the best case scenario and say the Heat will lead the league in points. We'll use the scoring numbers of the Phoenix Sunswho led the league last year with 110.23 ppg.
If we subtract the amount of points from Wade (25.0), Bosh (18.0), Miller (10.0), Haslem (8.0), House/Arroyo/Chalmers (15.0), Anthony, Ilgauskas, Magloire, Howard (10.0), from 110.67, we get about 24.2 points per game.
So there you have it, two categories down and just one more to go.
The category that is sure to give him the most trouble is rebounding. No matter how you look at it, it's difficult to see James going from 7.3 boards to double-digit rebounding. Even with weak rebounders in Cleveland outside of Anderson Varejao, James was only able to rack up seven a game, which is decent, but not nearly as impressive as his other numbers.
Now with the Heat, he's got a plethora of big men, who's only jobs are basically to crash the glass. You've got Udonis Haslem, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, Jamaal Magloire, Joel Anthony, rookie Dexter Pittman, and of course, Chris Bosh. Together, that's a combined 26.5 rebounds.
Now, lets say the Heat will lead the league in rebounding this season. We'll use the rebounding numbers of last year's top rebounding team, the Chicago Bulls. The Bulls averaged a league high 44.54 rebounds a game.
Wade(5.0), Bosh (11.0), Miller (4.0), Haslem/Anthony/Howard/Ilgauskas/Magloire (15.5).
So let's apply that to the Heat and we can see that there's about 9.04 rebounds left to split up. So there you have it, LeBron James' chances to average double-digit rebounds are statistically slim as he can probably only get as close as nine rebounds a game, best-case scenario.
So, (BEST-CASE SCENARIO) LeBron James' season-ending statistics could look something like this:
24.2 ppg, 10.8 apg, 9.0 rpg
I'm not stating that James can't average a triple-double. I'm simply stating, it will be quite a difficult task. But hey, those numbers are nothing to be ashamed of. |
