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Technology Stocks : PSFT - 1997 Outlook [closed thread]
PSFT 0.00010000.0%Oct 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Bilow who wrote (519)11/11/1997 1:19:00 AM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 940
 
Carl, there are a number of inaccurate statements in your post. Let me correct a few of them. Earnings for this year are expected to be $1.73 according to Lehman Bros. That computes to a P/E of about 40x. Projected 1998 earnings are $2.45, so the forward-looking P/E is about 26x.

Second, operating earnings were about 19% of sales in 1997.

I never pay attention to either book value or PSR's.

In their press release PSFT indicated that they were comfortable with 75% growth for the remainder of the year (read that as 75% minimum because they always seem to surprise). Also, for this company you need to pay special attention to deferred revenues (listed as a current liability on the B/S) -- this item is a peek into future revenues, and it stands 50% higher than it did nine months ago, and almost 22% higher than it did 3 months ago. This is evidence that sales may be accelerating.

Here are the deferred revenue numbers:

4q 96 $183,252
1q 97 204,893
2q 97 231,189
3q 97 283,816

Based on these numbers I would guess that PSFT will be looking at a minimum of about 55% revenue growth next year (but it could be a lot higher).

Regards,

Paul
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