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Strategies & Market Trends : The Market Taught Me That......
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To: Vanni Resta who wrote (106)11/11/1997 5:47:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (2) of 151
 
Vanni

I bet you also follow the random walk theory, which IMO has
nothing to do with reality.
Seems that I'm in deep trouble, since I believe I have good percentage at predicting markets' future, esp. change of trend.
Guess I was lucky calling for HSI to top in early '94 around 13500 and fall sharply (it went below 10000 same year).
Guess I was lucky buying US$ against Yen at 81 Yen per $, a day after the all time low.
Guess I was lucky calling in July for a top in the stock market within 3 weeks or Dow 8500, whichever comes first, and later calling for the top on Aug 5th (actual top Aug 6th, and Mohan can verify my call).
Seems I'm luckier then I thought, or as my partner says:
Once is an incident, twice is coincident, three times is a system.
I make good strategic calls, but am a lousy trader looking to do
better, and that's what I was trying to demonstrate in that post- that one can call it right and still lose money trading.

ATG
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