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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting SPY for fun and profit.

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To: Dwight Taylor who wrote (89)	11/11/1997 9:19:00 AM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) of 346

>>With respect to market timing have you any experience with the Seasonality Trading Sysytem as put forth by Mutual Fund Forecaster?<< Ben, I never heard about the system but if you provide a link to a place where I can read about it I can give you my opinion. Even though I may try to market time (e.g., right now) I do believe in what they teach you at B. School and most money managers tell you about how difficult it is to try timing the market. However at this point in the cycle I would stick to having a net market exposure no higher than 100% (marging is ok is you use to short something instead of buying something as this will reduce your equity exposure). I would probably even hold some cash (T Bills CD's) Market timing is difficult and consumes a lot of energy. Given the low probability of being successful at it, I rather put my effort at finding undervalued/overvalued stocks to buy/sell short. Now in what I do there is some implicit market timing in that these days I am mainly shorting stocks even though I can not resist what IMO are bargains in tech stocks (I may be wrong though). Pancho

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