Petrolifera Petroluem PDP is currently valued at 50% of their 2P NAV based on their 2009 51-101. Hypothecially, PDP's land portfolio in Peru and Colombia would be free at a PDP acquisition price between $.65 and $1.25 / share.
Peru block 106 is a great block, surrounded by existing oil infrastructure and some of the largest producing oil fields in Peru. Perupetro used to have a Maranon basin heavy oil report that addressed pipeline infrastructure. Perupetro should soon release bid information on their recently completed oil and gas block auction, providing some information on the vaLue of block 106, but I'd guess block 106 is a good one, that comes with lots of existing data.
Similar to Colombia Peru's heavy oil will be diluted on site allowing the diluted oil to be co-mingled flow in Peru's pipeline combined with the other oil. Perenco on block 67 will dilute their heavy oil on block 67 before it enters Peru's pipeline. At Peru's international export terminal located on the Pacific Ocean, Peru would market / export the unified co-mingled oil product of light oil, medium oil, heavy oil and diluted bitumen all mixed together.
For GTE's 100% blocks 122 and 128, should GTE get lucky and make a large discovery, GTE's point of connection into Peru's existing pipelines would be determined by the location of the oil discovery, 12 MM acres in the JV land portfolio. Even before the GTE and Conoco Phillips joint venture, I would guess that Conoco Phillips, or a pipeline company will determine the route linking any Iquitos pipeline routed to Peru's international port.
If you assume that the 2P NAV on Petrolifera's main oil reserve/ production assets in Argentina can restored with capital investment, then PDP's Argentina land portfolio might blend into GTE's Buenos Aries office. IMO, GTE's Buenos Aries office needs more operations to keep busy and for Buenos Aries to become profitable. Valle Morado's gas revenue will help.
For PDP's Colombian land assets - many O&G companies shopping for Colombian land blocks.
GTE has tried unsuccessfully to sell their Gariby block in the Llanos, Catguas block in the Catutumbo basin, and their Rio Magdalena block in the Rio Magdelana basin. I assume these offers to sell blocks are GTE's attempt to consolidate their capital investment in the Putuamyo Foothills Trend, Iquitos Arch and new opportunities in Brazil.
I haven't looked at PDP in detail for a long time, as market investors have PDP locked up in the penalty box - pending a major O&G discovery, or merger and acquisition.
PS> The declines on Pan Orient's POE's new oil discoveries in Thailand's volcanic reservoirs (on-shore) are about 10% a month. I'm not sure POE, the company has data or full understanding on the decline rates for each of their oil fields - to project forward production/revenue guidance. This makes it difficult to value POE shares. The trend continues of POE share price rising after announcing high initial production (IP) flow rates on a new oil discovery, and POE's share price declining along with with rapidly declining oil flow rates (from the IP). |
