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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures

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From: Jimfutu28	11/2/2010 1:18:57 AM
	of 12410

The Softs Review For the week of November 1st, 2010 Talk Soft! Yes, we are back to talk about Soft market this week. Let's see if there is anything new in this market in the first week of November. Open the expert Jurgens H. Bauer's analysis! Tuesday is Election Day and with it may come euphoria, but can things really change? I have no positions towards which I feel genuinely excited. Instead the coming week ought to provide fund action as they pick up the pace on rolling positions. I still cannot feel comfortable with the CTZ/CTH spread which blasted off, rather swiftly, thwarting efforts from those seeking to secure a benefit from being short Z and long H, and yet that has been the play previous. As the week begins cotton is up 400 points in both months. Great! Just what the market needs...more synthetic trading! That's a hell of a means of price discovery....Coffee and Cocoa too to some degree should expect the rolling of positions, but neither of those markets has the extra impact of the violent limit moves seen in cotton. While cotton prices capture attention, the dollar weakness has investors seeking positions among most commodities, I am not convinced that coffee and cocoa are receiving their share of the perceived benefit. In fact if coffee prices prove unable to push over the contract high of 204.60 values could set back over the next two weeks heading towards December option expiration. Certainly a push over 205 should lead to 208-209 and likely 212, but a failure? Well, a failure could see a violent return to 191, although a staging area for support is apt to be 198. Anything below there and coffee prices could drop sharply. For now, 198 to 204 is the range I'd play, but readers note my long term objective remains. Sugar on the other hand seems destined for 30 cents and then maybe 40 cents after that. Buying dips has seemed the obvious play, but one day... View the market chart and other related futures market information at pitguru.com

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