Senate 'Big Six' will determine fate of parties on Election Day
1. The Fix's Big Six Senate races -- Colorado, Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Washington and West Virginia -- are certain to determine whether Republicans have a good night or a great one Tuesday.
Already four Democratic-held Senate seats are effectively conceded as GOP takeovers: North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana and Wisconsin. Democrats have some long-shot hopes for Sen. Russ Feingold (D) but acknowledge that he is a clear underdog against wealthy businessman Ron Johnson.
Democratic pickup opportunities, on the other hand, are few and far between. The Kentucky open seat contest appears to have slipped as ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has a clear lead over state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) in recent polling.
The best chance for Democrats appears to be, oddly enough, Alaska where an independent poll released Monday showed attorney Joe Miller (R), Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who is running as a write-in candidate, all within three points of one another.
But it is in the Big Six races where the two national parties have placed the vast majority of money and attention over the last few days.
Colorado, where appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck (R) are facing off, is widely acknowledged to be the closest race in the country with early voting having turned out dead even. Outside groups and the two national party committees have combined to spend more than $33 million on the race -- the most of any contest.
In President Obama's home state, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a poll late Monday that showed state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) ahead of Rep. Mark Kirk (R) by two points. That survey showed a whopping 16 percent undecided -- a number that suggests voters in Illinois don't like either of their choices.
The Nevada Senate race between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) and former state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle (R) is easily the nastiest in the country and, along with Colorado, could be the closest. Democrats pronounced themselves thrilled with the early vote totals but Republicans insist the race is a tossup and recent independent polls have given Angle an edge.
In Washington State, Sen. Patty Murray (D) is well-liked but most polling suggests that she and former state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) are in a very close race. Seeking to counter the idea that Rossi is surging -- as some recent data suggest -- the DSCC released a poll Monday night that showed Murray at 51 percent and with a seven point edge.
The West Virginia Senate race tilts to popular Gov. Joe Manchin (D) who, after a rough early October, appears to have built a mid-single-digit edge over businessman John Raese (R). But Obama is deeply unpopular in the Mountain State and it's possible that Raese could pull an upset based almost exclusively on voters' distaste for the Democratic brand.
Keep an eye on the Big Six tonight. Those half-dozen races will tell us whether Republicans are able to ride the wave or whether it crested a week or two too soon. |
