SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Idea Of The Day
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: randy kay who wrote (13972)11/11/1997 11:55:00 AM
From: Tom Trader  Read Replies (2) of 50167
 
Hi Randy--re the ratio of postings

As I posted previously, the lows in April '97 and the summer of 96 also saw signs of capitulation by the posters on the usually bullish threads--that has not happened yet though there are indications of some shift in sentiment.

Obviously, given that the above is based on just two significant market lows it cannot be viewed as conclusive precedent--but something to keep in mind. The interesting thing about the peak in the market in the August time period, is that with the exception of th die-hard Kahunites, we saw capitulation by some of the bears who said that they had decided to go long.

My scenario --for what it is worth-- is that if we don't see a good bottom in place with the right sentiment numbers, we will still see a strong year-end rally, from an over-sold condition--probably after Thanksgiving-- that will fail and then the sell-off will resume in early 1998 and provide the basis for a resumption of the bull market some time in 1998. If on the other hand we achieve the necessary change in sentiment over the next few weeks--without too much technical damage--we'll have a bottom in place for a new leg in early 1998.

Needless to say this is nothing more than conjecture, but that is how I am playing this market in terms of establishing new long or short postions.
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News