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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (47005)11/9/2010 11:05:49 AM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 
You notice that this time almost all the polls where "biased" in the sense they predicted more Republican gains in the latest poll, than actually occurred in the election. In other elections I've seen the opposite.

I've heard that explained as being because the Republicans where more motivated in this election. Most Republicans where certain of their preference and they where overall more likely to be sure that they would vote. A number of Democratic leaning voters where uninspired and unsure, but made up their mind in the end and went with the Dems.

I don't know if that explanation is true, but it fits the facts very well. If it was true, it would also explain why Rasmussen had a larger "bias" than the average of the other polls (but not the largest), because it focuses only on likely voters, and wouldn't pick up apathetic voters who lean towards the Democrats. That focus has served it well in some other elections, helping to make it reasonably accurate, but may have harmed it in this one.
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