A ray of hope for you longs. As you know, I've been out for a while, but I'm keeping close track. You guys keep looking for good news where there isn't any -- you need to keep an open mind. But I'll spare you the lecture.
Anyway, the bad news first. Steve, that Bollinger Band shows the technical limitation of the method. Cymer's been riding the bottom band down for a long time. You need to tighten the band a little to get an accurate picture, and if you do, Cymer will still be below the bottom band. I ran all the technicals and, IMVHO, they look terrible. CYMI has downward momentum as of today, with no sign of abatement.
The reason -- and the good news -- is that, finally, you guys have a market "conspiracy" or manipulation to complain about (not that anyone is listening). Shorting at 28 or so was a foresighted sell of an overpriced issue. Shorting at 20 is a momentum play. A poster on MF called several big brokers and all of them advised him not to buy, or to sell, based on a bunch of ridiculous semi-fabrications and overstatements of technical problems. My guess is that the big houses have a lot of the short interest and want to ride it for a couple of more points down, so they are discouraging their clients from buying it to keep away any buy-side pressure.
The very good news is that when something positive happens (and it may not happen until 16 or even 14) -- like when the momentum turns decidely up, or a big house upgrades CYMI on value -- the stampede to cover the shorts is going to turn the stock price steeply up. It's just a question of trying to pick the bottom. I'm getting back in at 16 and expecting to see 22 to 24 in a few weeks. If I miss it, too bad. But if I see TWO upgrades, I'll buy at market. I'm keeping some cash available and waiting to jump in at this point.
I'm sorry you guys who are long have been hurting, it's a great company. Except maybe the guy who called me "stupid" for selling. |
