Global Oil Supplies as Reported by EIA’s International Petroleum Monthly for November 2010
Posted by Rune Likvern on November 12, 2010 - 9:21am in The Oil Drum: Europe
My post is mainly an update to Global Oil Supplies as Reported by EIA's International Petroleum Monthly for September 2010, based on data which the EIA reported in the past few days. I will also briefly present updated information regarding OECD and Non OECD oil supplies/consumption.
The stacked columns show crude oil and condensates supplies split among OPEC, Russia and ROW (Rest Of World which also includes OECD), from January 2001 through August 2010. The development in the average monthly oil price is plotted on the left hand y-axis.
Note that world oil production has been on a plateau, from late 2004 to the present, with a small dip when prices dropped in late 2008 to early 2009. This graph considers crude and condensate only, excluding natural gas liquids and other forms of liquid energy, such as biofuels.
europe.theoildrum.com
"To me it appears that the recent growth in oil prices has been driven by growing demand/consumption within Non OECD countries.
As OECD production continues to decline, a growing need for imports into OECD (ref figure 04 in this post) is expected to add upward pressure to the oil price. Oil imports into OECD will normally tend to be higher during the heating season (winter in the Northern Hemisphere) and this suggests an upward pressure on the oil price in the months ahead....
...In summary, November's International Petroleum Monthly supports a continuation of the trends I had noted in my earlier post. In other words, world economies are still growing, putting more pressures on oil prices. By the end of 2011, my earlier analysis showed that the OPEC spare supply margin may be depleted. The next few months may be interesting ones!" |
